I am resisting the urge to report everything I read daily in real estate since it is mainly a rehash of what is happening, a slowing down in activities. Nonetheless, there are still insights to help us move through this market for all three categories, buyers, sellers and Realtors.

Tim Iacono over at Seeking Alpha summarizes a NAR report as well as general economic market news.

Existing home sales feel more than expected in September. What caught my attention here was the “expected” word. Who was expecting what? If it was NAR and CAR numbers, then we know they are usually optimistic numbers, so no real news there. The fall was quoted as 8% down since August country wide, with almost 20% down since last year. I would say in Long Beach, according to our local MLS, activities are down by a good third since last year. On the positive side, Robert Weil Associates, for an independently owned company manages very well with almost 25% activities in certain key areas of Long Beach. I am proud to be part of that team.

“Inventory set a new eight year record at 10.4 months, up from 7.3 months a year ago.” Median price is falling.

Barry Ritholtz at Seeking Alpha echoes the sentiment by talking about the impact on retail. After an expected good September month, back to school greatly helped, things are coming down a bit. Could it be people don’t really need all the gadgets and extra stuff advertised all the time?

Nonetheless, yesterday’s prediction of a “soft landing” is turning to be harsher than expected. There is that word again, expected. Beware of predictions, they have a 50% chance of being right!

Barry condenses it like this:

“1) temporary consumer weakness blamed on energy costs; 2) signs of an ongoing sentiment decay in the US, partially blamed on the Iraq War; 3) the long awaited impact of the housing slowdown on US consumption; 4) warnings of a greater economic slowdown or even recession; 5) some combination of all of the above.”

Energy costs, especially when they conveniently climb have always been a great scapegoat. Ongoing wars that were supposed to be decisive and swift, drain the moral. That’s a given. However, it also sustains our dwindling economy, but at what price. The rest makes sense.

As always Barry and Tim make some good points and help us get a bigger picture to what is happening, because that is really the important thing, to get the bigger picture. Too many times all three, buyers, sellers and Realtors look at our immediate market. We need to raise our heads high and see the global aspect. Where are we heading? Where are we being directed? What is the bigger picture and mostly, who profits from all this. After that, it’s easier to understand the trend.