Calculated Risk did a little snooping in time to see how our financial fearless leaders dealt with reality. The results were as puzzling as we might expect. Those experts either cannot tell the truth for fear of fear or they are so far off removed from reality, they cannot grasp it anymore. You chose:

“For the recession that started in April 1960:

“By and large, however, the economy seems quite solid.”
Federal Open Market Committee, May 1960

“[Chairman Martin] was by no means convinced that the situation was serious.”
Federal Open Market Committee, July 1960

“The Chairman reiterated his views … There was a declining picture, … but the economy was not going over a precipice by any means.”
Federal Open Market Committee, October 1960

For the recession that began in July 1990:

“In the very near term there’s little evidence that I can see to suggest the economy is tilting over [into recession].”
Chairman Greenspan, July 1990

“…those who argue that we are already in a recession I think are reasonably certain to be wrong.”
Greenspan, August 1990

“… the economy has not yet slipped into recession.”
Greenspan, October 1990″

And you have probably seen how much Greenspan is defending himself lately…