If you have read my blog before, you will know by now I am no great fan of so-called expert’s predictions. If anyone takes any time to see their track records, only a few stand out, unfortunately, the press media seems bent on picking the wrong ones and giving them too much credit for their competencies.
Over at Seeking Alpha, 
To start with, the worse at the top of the list, former Fed chairman Greenspan and current chairman Bernanke. Both tally up an impressive list of predictions that never came about. To be fair, one cannot help but wonder if they wanted to test how much they could influence the markets with brave words. If that is the case, please refrain in the future. It doesn’t work when people get scared.
Two other people I have talked about plenty here are our other favorite cheerleaders who are and were hard at work constantly lowering their credibility, David Lereah and Lawrence Yun, respectively, ex president of NAR and current CFO of NAR. I just don’t get it. Here is one group of professional that spends millions in advertisings trying to build a better image for Realtors and at the same time keep on making predictions that are revised downwards the following month. It’s become way past funny, it’s pathetic.
All in all, one person Tim acknowledges, and I fully agree is Robert Shiller who hits it pretty right most of the time.
All of this proves to show three things. 1) most experts are only experts because the news presents them in this fashion. If we are smart, we will determine how “experts” these experts are. 2) most of these experts rarely explain their deductions nor their calculation methods, making them splurge in a game of hit and miss, unfortunately, more miss than hits. 3) trust only the serious ones who are real economists like Robert Shiller.
Until then, here is to wishing us all 2008 brings about the time we regain our power of thinking, critical analysis and start thinking for ourselves, leaving the experts a second seat.
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