
A week back or so, Jim Wiandt wrote a post entitled, “Without a Widespread Economic Crash, a Housing Crash Is Unlikely.” The title speaks for itself and though I glanced at it quickly, it was the same thing all over. “Expert” predicts everything will be alright. It wasn’t backed up with anything concrete. So I never mentioned it. A dime a dozen, as far as I am concerned.
However,
Matthew Hougan’s post on Seeking Alpha drilled down the original post and came up with some basics. Affordability is at an all time very low in our neck of the woods. More than ever, we need to take that into consideration when pricing homes. Sure, this doesn’t really effect most of the market I deal with. Big homes don’t feel the crunch nearly as much as median price but they get effected indirectly. It’s a trickle effect, if no one can buy the smaller homes, less and less people can move up to afford those bigger homes. We’re all in it together after all.
“According to the National Association of Realtors [NAR], 28 percent of all homes purchased in the U.S. in 2005 were “investments,” along with 22 percent in 2006. With prices soaring, I think you could fairly call these speculations. Regardless, however, these buyers have disappeared, and I think the impact of these buyers leaving the market will be significant.”
In a market where one quarter of homes were bought as investment on short term, what happens when homes don’t sell as fast and for how much they were anticipated? They sit on the market. We already have 9 months straight of surplus homes to sell in a market where… it doesn’t sell quickly enough and for the anticipated price. The rest doesn’t take a rocket science engineer to figure out.
“Since 1971, the NAR has been publishing a “Home Price Affordability” Index, which measures the ability of a median-income family to purchase the median-priced home. The index … assumes a family can plop down a 20% down payment and get the best possible mortgage rate. We know that’s not always the case…
According to a report from HUD, the index originally came to market with a reading of 150 in 1971. It fell as we approached the 1982 real estate bust, and then recovered, and has hovered in the 130-to-140 range since 1993.
But since 2005, it’s cratered. In July, the NAR affordability index hit 103.6 nationwide … one of its lowest readers ever. In the Northeast region, it hit 90.4 … which means the median family cannot afford the median home, even under the most optimistic of circumstances. In the West, the index reads 69.2. 69.2.”
So if inflation doesn’t match home prices and less and less people can afford to buy homes, what happens? Two things, either money grows on trees and we can go on another frenzy or prices have to reflect one important reality in real estate, what and how much buyer can and will afford. It is a science, not dictated by emotional returns on investments.