Blue Moon Today!

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It’s a Blue Moon Day!

This May has seen two blue moons thanks to our retarded Sun calendar. I say retarded because it isn’t accurate and actually causes many problems. In this respect, smart and more precise calendars use the sun, the moon and constellations movements, but that is another topic.

Two full moons in one month is interesting. Think about two big tides in one month and how it affects fishing.

Anyone feeling it or is it just the caffeine rushing though me?

Rejoice! One Of Top Spammer In Jail

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Indeed, it is a good day.

27-year-old, Robert Alan Soloway, accused of using networks of compromised “zombie” computers to send out millions upon millions of spam e-mails is in custody when a federal grand jury last week returned a 35-count indictment against Soloway charging him with mail fraud, wire fraud, e-mail fraud, aggravated identity theft and money laundering.

So smile, breath easier, your inbox will get skinnier soon enough. PLease read the story below and show we users are sick and tired of these leeches ripping off people. The again, people have to learn. In the meantime I say: “Burn the witch!”. (Monty Python)

Read the whole story  here.

Recession, Crisis, Lack of Money? Nah!

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Maybe I’ve missed something, maybe I traveled too much, maybe my spiritual quest has taken me in a different direction but I still can’t afford $8,000,000 for a beautiful Italian. What gives?

With the recent surveys showing the Baby Boomer problem, i.e. not retiring early enough, still making a lot of money, the X generation being starved and the Y generation being very ticked off and turned off, it makes perfect sense that these cars go to elderly adults.

Here is a round up from  VeloceToday.com of how much money has been spent lately on truly exceptional cars:

Most cars were Ferrari with the 330 TRI taking top bids, while others, such as the Pininfarina 340/375 berlinetta of 1953 and the Touring 340MM spider of 1953 have also reached very high selling prices, as well as the more recent 512S and the Dino 206S. Two 250GT SWB Ferraris were sold, one at $2,470,000 USD and the other at $2,210,000 USD, not including commissions. Here are the prices, please sit down and use a napkin should your saliva gland start drooling:

Dino 206S: $2,860,000 US.
Ferrari 512S: $3,120,000 US.
340 MM Touring:$2,730,000 US.
340/375MM PF: $5,005,000 US.
330TRI: $8,125,000 US.
Prices here and below do not include 12% commission.

Veloce Today is a great website with quality reports and articles, all free and at a great pace. Along with Sport Car Market, I religiously check both sites.

Redefining a Profession, Mortgage Lender

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That a lending broker has no fiduciary duty towards the person he lends the money to is already scary but when the government stepped in to change this, guess who went up in arms?

According to a post on  Calculated Risk, the Wall Street Journal wrote:

“Borrowers often see mortgage brokers as their allies, searching far and wide for just the right home loan at an attractively low price. But many brokers are making it clear they don’t see things that way. They are fighting efforts by federal and state politicians to impose a fiduciary duty on them to put their customers’ interests first, as lawyers, real-estate agents and financial planners generally are required to do with their clients.

“The mortgage broker does not represent the borrower,” says Chris Holbert, president of the Colorado Mortgage Lenders Association. “We sell access to money.” The industry group recently opposed language in Colorado legislation that would have required mortgage brokers to act “primarily for the benefit of the borrower.” That provision was later deleted. . . .”

Well that is a very lame way of trying to have it all. Unfortunately, you are shooting yourself in the foot.

And it continues with: “The National Association of Mortgage Brokers, the main nationwide trade group for brokers, argues that brokers work neither for consumers nor for lenders. Imposing a fiduciary duty would increase the risk of litigation over whether brokers are to blame for loans that go bad, says Joseph Falk, legislative chairman of the association.”

Yeah, why bother us, everyone knows the first people in line to get sued are the Realtors, not the lenders.

Yes, definitely a society of very little accountability. How far will we go? Isn’t it obvious we are heading for a disaster?

Round Up Seeking Alpha News

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Here is a quick look at some news on  Seeking Alpha‘s site.

-  Home prices are up in the county but sales plunge. This is the famous conundrum, how can we have home appreciating if prices theoretically are falling as with sales? Yet, there it is. We fare very well in Long Beach. To be fair, some parts did drop as would be expected if a better value is to be found closer elsewhere.

-  Housing study: Many can’t get foot in door. That is obvious and sad. It would be a great economic boom if first time buyers could own.

-  As Condos Rise in South Florida, Nervous Investors Try to Flee. Not specifically Long Beach related but it shows a trend to keep an eye on, lest we should get hit. So far, I have noticed condo prices either stagnating or in some parts of the city, actually coming down. No great news there, condos appreciated to fast the last few years.

-  April Housing Data Surprises; Stocks Reverse Early Gains on Fear of Fed Hike. The rest of the country is not following our county trend of rising median prices. In fact, quite the other way around. How will this influence us? Will we lose people to other states?

-  Home prices fall for 9th straight month. And now the contradicting news according to NAR.

This is probably the single most annoying thing about media headlines and news, it contradicts itself unless you really, dig into it. I’ve noticed, especially the past two years that NAR might not have the same message other specialized and mass media are reporting which has had the disastrous effect on how many people see NAR. Unfortunately, many people see NAR as a cheerleader to keep our moral up.

Enjoy today’s news. I will continue this in the future.

Is It A Great Time To Be A Buyer?

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I believe it has been for a few months already, despite the media irrelevant old news, partial takes and overt manipulation.

Money magazine had a few good articles in its May issue. I will write about it throughout this week. It is always interesting to gauge the non-real estate specialized press take on real estate.

The basic argument for buyers is choice, choice, choice. Indeed, with a huge supply of homes on the market, their is plenty of choice.

Low rates. Yes, 6 to 8% might seem like a lot but remember that ten years back, it was closer to 20!

The magazine believes prices are falling. I can’t say for sure. Some condos prices have dropped, especially in the $200,000 – 500,000 range. I just have not seen it yet in a substantial way in our city, but you never know what will happen next month.

Check back tomorrow.

New Homes Sales and The Numbers

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Business Week wasn’t the only one to pick up on the strange dance numbers do, Calculated Risk also did.

In this  post, they retraced year-end inventory and months of supply numbers, since 1982.

This sentence particularly caught my attention: “The “months of supply” metric is now above the level of the previous housing slump in the early ’90s, but still below the levels of the housing bust in the early ’80s.”. Now that is a development. The first thing we need to think about is what was the difference between the 80s and 90s. One thing comes to mind, the incredible leaps and bound technology took then.

We are now at 8.4 months of supply, well past the critical 7 month barrier. “Both the numerator and the denominator are moving in the wrong direction. Not only is inventory at record levels, but sales – though falling – are still significantly above the normal range as a percent of owner occupied units (a measure of turnover).”

This is what I like about individual bloggers who really know what they are doing, they offer better data and conclusions that regular well established magazines and websites that still depend too much on advertising and the pressures that follow.

But wait, there’s more… Part  deux!

Another very good point and little covered by established media, one of the rarely mentioned stories, related to the housing boom, was the increase in turnover of existing homes. This helped shape the stage a few years back.

Anyway, you get the gist.

Wood or Bamboo Hardfloor?

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For a few years now, we have been told about the virtues of Bamboo flooring. And it makes sense in many ways.

Bamboo looks like wood, is tougher, doesn’t burn as well as wood, can be glued, floated or nailed down. And those are just the inside-your-home positive aspects.

It’s great on the environment also. It prevents soil erosion with its spread out roots, it grows so fast a whole crop can be replaced in five years. It’s really more of a fast growing grass, something like an inch a day. The species we use comes from China and is not eaten by pandas.

Obviously we are huge consumers of wood in this country. Though we love to blame the Japanese for their wooden chopstick, the truth is we eat up more wood than most other countries. Not only have we successfully pursued the deforestation of our country, we are also involved in other countries deforestation, namely the Amazon amongst others.

Bamboo makes sense I believe. A well tinted bamboo floor looks very nice. And if you would like to read more about it, read today’s Hardwood Flooring advertising in the Press Telegram. I don’t like mentioning ads, but bamboo is a good product. Also, I have nothing to do with any companies involved in that ad nor do I own any stocks in any companies involved to my knowledge.

I can’t believe we need to say these things in order to protect for litigious happy folks…

More Homes, Less People In

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How did so many get overstretched in the housing boom? A good question asked by Business Week’s Peter Coy. Most of us have a pretty good idea and as usual, we blame the “professionals”.

Since we are living in a time of very little accountability, it is only normal the media manipulates people into blaming it all on a scapegoat. True enough, many lending companies made a huge mess by not even thoroughly checking their clients past.

One of the reason why so many are now stretched, according to Coy is that they bought more house than they really needed. There’s evidence for that in a Census Bureau report this past week.

According to Census, 20% of occupied homes in 2005 had four or more bedrooms. Poking around elsewhere on the Census website, I find that the average number of people in a family household last year was 3.2. Figuring that the mommy and the daddy are usually sharing one bedroom, it sounds like there are a lot of empty bedrooms out there in Foreclosure Land.

As Spock, T’Pau and Tuvak would say: “Interesting”.

How Accurate Are Numbers Describing The Current State of Market

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Everyone knows, figures can’t lie but liars can always figure. In other words, statistics have so often been manipulated to influence people.

According to the latest statistics for new homes, sales are up 16% which is surprisingly good.

John Burns gave his point of view even before today’s numbers. He had been warning his clients for more than a year about distortions in the data for new and existing home sales, which he believes is lulling policymakers into believing that the housing downturn has been relatively modest and no cause for alarm.

Burns finds conflict with the official sales data. His firm purchases and compiles home closing data for 181 key counties in the U.S. where 55% of the population lives His data shows that sales have fallen 22% over the past 12 months over the prior 12-month period. This is pretty accurate as I have noticed that most Realtors and lenders, along with most businesses associated with housing have lost about one third business since the slowdown of 2005. He also notes that the Mortgage Bankers Association’s purchase application index – in effect, a measure of the number of people filling out loan applications – is down 18% from its 2005 peak. His question: How could sales have fallen by less than 18%?

Burns also points out that the nation’s two largest homebuilders, D.R. Horton and Lennar are reporting that orders have declined 27% to 37%, year over year – again, far less than the official numbers. And they both have dropped prices significantly in many markets to generate sales, while the resale market hasn’t. Why not?

So are we being fed again manipulated statistics or are we not being given the whole picture. I am sure most of you have their idea on the subject.

Click  here to read the original article.